I have been a relatively mute spectator in the political space. While I do read a lot online, almost every article I read ends with my eyes rolling at the sheer moronery of the tamasha called Indian politics. From 'paid media' to 'social media armies', it seems that you can never believe anything you read. And yet, you're expected to form an 'informed opinion' before you vote.
This has meant that while I am reading so much, I'm hardly 'giving back' anything online, in the form of opinions or endorsements of articles. This article is my attempt to give something back. It is, one may say, an 'opinion', based on numbers and certain assumptions.
Experience
I have had only ONE real, ON-GROUND, experience of the political process. It was back in my days as a Sales Manager in Tirupati. Chiranjeevi was launching his party and purportedly, some 7 lakh people had arrived in the city for the rally. Everyone was given a chicken biryani and a small bottle of liquor. I was barely a few minutes away from the venue and was getting these live updates from my team.
I got the distinct feeling that the whole election process is a game of money - of how many voters you can buy. Now, us, English reading, web-surfing junta, we would think that who would be stupid enough to vote for a certain party basis what money/gifts/alcohol they received? Well, that seems to be what's happening in the country for the last 60 years! And with some media outlets, both on paper and online, brazenly taking sides one way or the other, even WE are voting basis our limited reading online. How many people really go through ALL the view points on any particular matter. The media certainly doesn't help. I don't remember reading too many balanced articles on any matter. The media takes sides, authors take sides, and we end up with a skewed view basis what media we're exposed to.
Number games
So to make the whole process a bit more exciting for me (as opposed to exasperating or disillusioning), I jumped into some data, put together some assumptions and came out with a prediction for the Delhi polls.
We all know that media hoo-haa counts for little as a very small percentage of the population sees what we see in the form of 'premium' news channels. At the end of the day, its a very local decision made by a largely locally-exposed bunch of people who would have vaguely heard of the Modi's and Dikshit's of the world.
While the above is true, it is changing, slowly. Every year about 1% is added to the electorate by way of youngsters coming into the polling fray. People are also getting more involved and we're seeing voter turnouts increasing. These small, incremental, changes can alter the overall picture. Let's explore how.
What an election looks like on an excel sheet
In the last elections in Delhi in 2008, the Congress (INC), won over 60% of the 70-seat assembly. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was far behind with just 30% of the seats.
That being said, the percentage of people voting for the INC was 40% while for the BJP was 36%. There were many seats where the Congress just pipped the BJP, whereas most of the BJP victories were by huge margins.
It is in these details that, I believe, lies the future of this episode of the elections. The new voters coming into the fray, by way of age, or 'realization' (that their vote counts), can tilt the balance the other way. A large percentage of the voters will continue to vote as they voted the last time. Not by habit, but because their candidates will use the same tactics they used last time to coerce them and they will invariably succeed.
Coming to the assumptions
1. I have used the grid below to (assume &) describe how the 2008 voter will behave in 2013, and how the 'new' voter will vote. For example if 100 people voted for the Congress in 2008, 80 will continue to vote for them, 10 will vote for the BJP and 10 for other parties. This is largely due to the anti-incumbency factor. For the new voter, I've given the BJP a slight advantage over the INC as I feel they are doing a better job with the youth.
5. I have ignored people being deleted from the list due to death, etc. I think the number is too small to be considered.
With the above assumptions in place, I arrive at the following results for 2013:
BJP - 36
INC - 28
Others - 6
Here's the link to the working document I made for this.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B24jHHFCzAOFdkZfV3h2SlhPcXM/edit?usp=sharing
Now, let the real games begin...!
PS - All data was taken from the official website of the Chief Electoral Officer of Delhi : http://www.ceodelhi.gov.in/
This has meant that while I am reading so much, I'm hardly 'giving back' anything online, in the form of opinions or endorsements of articles. This article is my attempt to give something back. It is, one may say, an 'opinion', based on numbers and certain assumptions.
Experience
I have had only ONE real, ON-GROUND, experience of the political process. It was back in my days as a Sales Manager in Tirupati. Chiranjeevi was launching his party and purportedly, some 7 lakh people had arrived in the city for the rally. Everyone was given a chicken biryani and a small bottle of liquor. I was barely a few minutes away from the venue and was getting these live updates from my team.
I got the distinct feeling that the whole election process is a game of money - of how many voters you can buy. Now, us, English reading, web-surfing junta, we would think that who would be stupid enough to vote for a certain party basis what money/gifts/alcohol they received? Well, that seems to be what's happening in the country for the last 60 years! And with some media outlets, both on paper and online, brazenly taking sides one way or the other, even WE are voting basis our limited reading online. How many people really go through ALL the view points on any particular matter. The media certainly doesn't help. I don't remember reading too many balanced articles on any matter. The media takes sides, authors take sides, and we end up with a skewed view basis what media we're exposed to.
Number games
So to make the whole process a bit more exciting for me (as opposed to exasperating or disillusioning), I jumped into some data, put together some assumptions and came out with a prediction for the Delhi polls.
We all know that media hoo-haa counts for little as a very small percentage of the population sees what we see in the form of 'premium' news channels. At the end of the day, its a very local decision made by a largely locally-exposed bunch of people who would have vaguely heard of the Modi's and Dikshit's of the world.
While the above is true, it is changing, slowly. Every year about 1% is added to the electorate by way of youngsters coming into the polling fray. People are also getting more involved and we're seeing voter turnouts increasing. These small, incremental, changes can alter the overall picture. Let's explore how.
What an election looks like on an excel sheet
In the last elections in Delhi in 2008, the Congress (INC), won over 60% of the 70-seat assembly. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was far behind with just 30% of the seats.
That being said, the percentage of people voting for the INC was 40% while for the BJP was 36%. There were many seats where the Congress just pipped the BJP, whereas most of the BJP victories were by huge margins.
It is in these details that, I believe, lies the future of this episode of the elections. The new voters coming into the fray, by way of age, or 'realization' (that their vote counts), can tilt the balance the other way. A large percentage of the voters will continue to vote as they voted the last time. Not by habit, but because their candidates will use the same tactics they used last time to coerce them and they will invariably succeed.
Coming to the assumptions
1. I have used the grid below to (assume &) describe how the 2008 voter will behave in 2013, and how the 'new' voter will vote. For example if 100 people voted for the Congress in 2008, 80 will continue to vote for them, 10 will vote for the BJP and 10 for other parties. This is largely due to the anti-incumbency factor. For the new voter, I've given the BJP a slight advantage over the INC as I feel they are doing a better job with the youth.
2. As we can see, I still think it will be firmly a two-horse race. The new, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is small, doesn't know how to win an election, and is a distraction at best. Moreover, would have to take enough votes away from the BJP AND Congress, in each constituency that they want to win - I don't see that happening.
3. I have assumed that we will have 70% voting on the 2008 base in all constituencies that had a 60+% turnout in the last elections. So for example, Rithala polled in at 63% last time round with 116k / 183k people voting. This time round, we will see 128k people voting. Overall, we should see around 500k people MORE who will vote vs 2008.
4. All constituencies that polled lower than 60% in 2008 will add 5% voters to their base. Vikaspuri, for instance which polled in at 56%, with 137k / 248k voters will now have 149k people casting their ballot.
5. I have ignored people being deleted from the list due to death, etc. I think the number is too small to be considered.
With the above assumptions in place, I arrive at the following results for 2013:
BJP - 36
INC - 28
Others - 6
Here's the link to the working document I made for this.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B24jHHFCzAOFdkZfV3h2SlhPcXM/edit?usp=sharing
Now, let the real games begin...!
PS - All data was taken from the official website of the Chief Electoral Officer of Delhi : http://www.ceodelhi.gov.in/
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