Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts

Monday, February 10, 2014

Switzerland



Switzerland is like a 5-star hotel in Mumbai, surrounded by relative mediocrity & poverty. Everyone outside is enamoured by its splendid facade, has heard stories of its spas & beach-facing swimming pools, and the tabloids catch the rich & famous zipping in & out.


Back in the day, when this 'hotel' started out, some of its enterprising owners realized their great location advantage, and invested in creating the best infrastructure for the biggest marketing campaign of all time - the Swiss Alps. Needless to say, it was a roaring success. And since so much money & effort was put behind making all this infrastructure, the 'prices' had to be prohibitively expensive. This meant only the richest of the rich could come & 'stay'.

As this started happening, the enterprising Swiss figured a common thread running through these rich visitors - their need to stash away their cash, secretly. So the 'hotel' started offering 'other' services as well, very discreetly. The rich paid more & more to enjoy the benefits. Over time, everyone from the waiters to the guy who sorted the hotel trash started earning enough to be driving around in Mercs - some did, some chose not to and even left. The 'hotel' continued to get facelifts, and the common people outside continued to look on with awe. But the 'benefits' that the hotel provided, known only to the rich few, became one of the biggest USPs of the hotel, keeping it well ahead of other magnificent hotels.

But then two strange things happened in quick succession.

The owners of the hotel were impressed with the stupendous growth the hotel was seeing, and wanted more. They realized that too many people were leaving and not enough coming in, especially for the kind of growth they wanted. So they decided, undoubtedly correctly, to let anyone from around the locality in to help work at the hotel. This was a strange thing as this was never ever done in the history of the hotel, which was always a closed, selective community. But it brought in fresh ideas & 'unspoilt' people who were willing to do whatever it takes to make their lives, and by design, the hotel's future a success.

The other strange thing that happened was that laws got passed to have a 'camera' in all 'hotels', including Switzerland, with full access for global governments. The carefully built, and biggest standing, USP of the hotel was no more. The rich and famous could no longer come in & get other services without having Big Brother watching them through that wretched tin can on the wall. Many clients swore never to come again. There were murmurs of some other hotels somehow having the ability to have a few rooms without cameras. Many of the rich & famous promptly began going there.

Business dropped dramatically at the hotel. Enough clients were not coming in.

What's worse, some of the original inhabitants of the hotel started complaining that the stream of folks from the locality were getting too many. There were meetings & demonstrations, and open rejection of some of the cultural ideas of the ‘new ones’.
The owners had no clue what had hit them. They had two problems to solve at the same time. One, how to get business back. And two, how to quell this discontent amongst some of its inhabitants against the people coming in.

Interestingly enough, these problems might be linked. But more on that, and the first problem, later.

Bowing to pressure from this dissenting group, the owners did the unthinkable. They made it everybody's problem by asking them to vote on whether the people from the locality should be allowed in. They thought, rather naively that this group was a minority and the problem would solve itself with the vote saying that everything's fine, “keep 'em comin' in”.


The result of that vote came on Sunday evening. A shocker, to say the least. 44% of the people didn't even bother voting. Of the 56% that did, 50.3% were the dissenting group. That's well less than a third of the total. But as it happens, the owners have to go by the result, and tell all those locality groups that they cannot allow people to come in indiscriminately. The two problems are now even bigger.

Had the owners' thoughts of a victory in the vote materialized, the people from the locality would have come in, with fresh ideas, hard work & ambition, and helped solve the first problem, of business going down. Because people trying hard find a way, eventually.

The once magnificent hotel is now at a crossroads, its future uncertain. The best bet for the owners would probably be to go back to the original USP, around which in the first wave of business was built - beautiful, natural gifts complemented with amazing infrastructure, and a dazzling marketing campaign. But they would need people, and if not recruiting from around the locality is a constraint, they might well fall short. They might need to take down pricing in pockets, so as to gain volumes, but then would existing infrastructure suffice?

Strong positive, business building steps need to be taken…

Else, the hotel is destined to die a slow, painful death, eventually taken over by those dissenters who think they can do without help.

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As a new member of the hotel staff, I find myself in the midst of this calm chaos. The natural wonders that this place possesses coupled with the painstakingly built infrastructure is even more amazing than what it looked from the outside. But the murmurs of dissent against 'us' just got a voice today. Albeit only 28%. Hope they realize that we're all eventually working for the prosperity of the same hotel, that's how the system was designed.


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Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Delhi Polls - Analysis & Prediction

I have been a relatively mute spectator in the political space. While I do read a lot online, almost every article I read ends with my eyes rolling at the sheer moronery of the tamasha called Indian politics. From 'paid media' to 'social media armies', it seems that you can never believe anything you read. And yet, you're expected to form an 'informed opinion' before you vote.

This has meant that while I am reading so much, I'm hardly 'giving back' anything online, in the form of opinions or endorsements of articles. This article is my attempt to give something back. It is, one may say, an 'opinion', based on numbers and certain assumptions.

Experience
I have had only ONE real, ON-GROUND, experience of the political process. It was back in my days as a Sales Manager in Tirupati. Chiranjeevi was launching his party and purportedly, some 7 lakh people had arrived in the city for the rally. Everyone was given a chicken biryani and a small bottle of liquor. I was barely a few minutes away from the venue and was getting these live updates from my team.

I got the distinct feeling that the whole election process is a game of money - of how many voters you can buy. Now, us, English reading, web-surfing junta, we would think that who would be stupid enough to vote for a certain party basis what money/gifts/alcohol they received? Well, that seems to be what's happening in the country for the last 60 years! And with some media outlets, both on paper and online, brazenly taking sides one way or the other, even WE are voting basis our limited reading online. How many people really go through ALL the view points on any particular matter. The media certainly doesn't help. I don't remember reading too many balanced articles on any matter. The media takes sides, authors take sides, and we end up with a skewed view basis what media we're exposed to.


Number games
So to make the whole process a bit more exciting for me (as opposed to exasperating or disillusioning), I jumped into some data, put together some assumptions and came out with a prediction for the Delhi polls.

We all know that media hoo-haa counts for little as a very small percentage of the population sees what we see in the form of 'premium' news channels. At the end of the day, its a very local decision made by a largely locally-exposed bunch of people who would have vaguely heard of the Modi's and Dikshit's of the world.

While the above is true, it is changing, slowly. Every year about 1% is added to the electorate by way of youngsters coming into the polling fray. People are also getting more involved and we're seeing voter turnouts increasing. These small, incremental, changes can alter the overall picture. Let's explore how.


What an election looks like on an excel sheet
In the last elections in Delhi in 2008, the Congress (INC), won over 60% of the 70-seat assembly. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was far behind with just 30% of the seats.

That being said, the percentage of people voting for the INC was 40% while for the BJP was 36%. There were many seats where the Congress just pipped the BJP, whereas most of the BJP victories were by huge margins.

It is in these details that, I believe, lies the future of this episode of the elections. The new voters coming into the fray, by way of age, or 'realization' (that their vote counts), can tilt the balance the other way. A large percentage of the voters will continue to vote as they voted the last time. Not by habit, but because their candidates will use the same tactics they used last time to coerce them and they will invariably succeed.

Coming to the assumptions
1. I have used the grid below to (assume &) describe how the 2008 voter will behave in 2013, and how the 'new' voter will vote. For example if 100 people voted for the Congress in 2008, 80 will continue to vote for them, 10 will vote for the BJP and 10 for other parties. This is largely due to the anti-incumbency factor. For the new voter, I've given the BJP a slight advantage over the INC as I feel they are doing a better job with the youth.


2.  As we can see, I still think it will be firmly a two-horse race. The new, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is small, doesn't know how to win an election, and is a distraction at best. Moreover, would have to take enough votes away from the BJP AND Congress, in each constituency that they want to win - I don't see that happening.

3. I have assumed that we will have 70% voting on the 2008 base in all constituencies that had a 60+% turnout in the last elections. So for example, Rithala polled in at 63% last time round with 116k / 183k people voting. This time round, we will see 128k people voting. Overall, we should see around 500k people MORE who will vote vs 2008.

4. All constituencies that polled lower than 60% in 2008 will add 5% voters to their base. Vikaspuri, for instance which polled in at 56%, with 137k / 248k voters will now have 149k people casting their ballot.

5. I have ignored people being deleted from the list due to death, etc. I think the number is too small to be considered.

With the above assumptions in place, I arrive at the following results for 2013:

BJP - 36
INC - 28
Others - 6

Here's the link to the working document I made for this.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B24jHHFCzAOFdkZfV3h2SlhPcXM/edit?usp=sharing

Now, let the real games begin...!

PS - All data was taken from the official website of the Chief Electoral Officer of Delhi : http://www.ceodelhi.gov.in/